Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels with three (R1/Minor) flares observed. Region 3663 (N26E18, Dac/beta-gamma) produced two M class flares, an M1.8/Sn at 01/2231 UTC and an M1.0/Sn at 02/0219 UTC. The region also produced numerous C-class flares this period. The region showed rapid growth in the intermediate and leader spots and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 3654 (S07W81, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1.8/Sn flare at 01/1432 UTC as the region approached the WSW limb. Region 3664 (S18E57, Dai/beta) produced C-class activity on the SE limb. As it further rotated onto the disk, growth was observed in its trailer spots. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. New Region 3665 (S05E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No new CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast

Moderate solar activity is anticipated on 02-04 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely and a slight chance of an X-class flare (R3/Strong) event due primarily to the complexity and continued flare activity from Regions 3654 and 3663.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 02-04 May. There is a slight chance of an (S1/Minor) storm on 02 May due to the slight risk of a solar energetic particle event from the favorably located sunspot complex, Region 3654. This region will begin rotating beyond the limb on 03 May, resulting in decreased chances of S1 storm potential.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were indicative of transient progression. Total IMF strength ranged from 10-13 nT much of the period, however, the Bz component rotated northward early, became neutral mid period and transitioned south to -12 nT late. Solar wind speed varied between about 350-385 km/s through the period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation.

Forecast

Transient passage influences are likely to wane on 02 May, however, additional nearby CME passages or glancing influences are possible through 03 May. Also, several isolated CH HSS flows are anticipated to affect the solar wind, keeping a disturbed and enhanced field present. Finally, a mainly southwest directed CME associated with the aforementioned long-duration C5 flare has been analyzed and modeled. Results are mixed, so there is a fair amount of uncertainty regarding this CME. However, there is some consensus that a flanking edge shock arrival at Earth later on 04 May is feasible.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast

A mix of transient and CH HSS effects are likely to lead to variable geomagnetic responses 02-03 May from quiet periods to active levels. Dependent upon the 01 May CME transit and path, geomagnetic response could escalate to active levels later on 04 May, with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm levels. This CME continues to be analyzed for a final determination of geoeffective potential.