Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2024 Nov 28 0030 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar flare activity has been at moderate levels over the period. The largest, and only M-Class flare over the period, was an M1.0 at 27/1227 UTC from Region 3901(S09W58, Hax/Alpha). The region that had the highest number of flares was Region 3910 (N17E55, Dko/beta-gamma) which continues to come into better view showing a more complex magnetic field structure. Region 3911(S14W47, Cro/beta) was responsible for the largest C-Class flare, a C9.5 at 27/1030 UTC. Region 3906 (S16E07, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its magnetic delta, however, the leader spots showed decay and consolidation. Region 3905 (S09W03, Ek/beta-gamma) showed some consolidation in its intermediate spots and lost its delta in the trailer. The two aforementioned regions have each produced a C-class event over the period. The other region of note is Region 3907 (S22W35, Dao/beta-delta) which developed in its trailer and maintained a magnetic delta configuration in its intermediate spot. All other regions have been either stable or in decay. There have been no new Earth-directed CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery.

Previsione

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout activity is likely with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts 28-30 Nov due to the complexity of multiple regions on the disk, particularly Regions 3905 and 3906.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) radiation storm levels 27-29 Nov due to the potential for enhanced flare activity from Regions 3905 and 3906.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters have returned to nominal levels and will continue into 28 Nov. Total field has remained relatively constant around 6-7 nT with the Bz component varying between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged around 350 km/s. The phi angle has remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation with periodic, brief shifts into the positive (away from the Sun).

Previsione

Solar wind parameters will continue at nominal levels into 28 Nov. An enhanced field is likely late 28 Nov and into 29 Nov with the arrival of the CME associated with the filament eruption observed on 25 Nov.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Previsione

The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels into 28 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely late on 28 Nov due to the arrival of the CME associated with the 25 Nov filament eruption. G2 (Moderate) storm conditions are likely on 27 Nov as the CME effects continue.