Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2024 Sep 19 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Aktywność słoneczna
Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C4.1 at 18/0344 UTC from Region 3828 (S13E47, Cho/beta). Region 3825
(S15W07, Ehi/beta-gamma-delta) was mostly stable. Slight growth occurred
in Region 3824 (S04W69, Eai/beta-gamma). The rest of the spot groups
were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available satellite imagery.
Prognoza
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on
19-21 Sep.
Cząsteczki energetyczne
Podsumowanie dobowe
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux levels decreased to background levels.
Prognoza
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 19-21 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 19-21 Sep.
Wiatr słoneczny
Podsumowanie dobowe
Solar wind parameters were enhanced but in decline through the day.
Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 520 km/s to near 425 km/s.
Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6
nT. At approximately 18/2045 UTC, Bz turned southward and sustained -8
nT through the end of the UTC day. Phi angle was mostly positive.
Prognoza
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on
19-20 Sep. By 21 Sep, an enhancement is possible with the arrival of a
positive polarity CH HSS.
Geoprzestrzeń
Podsumowanie dobowe
The geomagnetic field was active early in the period due to residual CME
activity and then again at the end of the period due to sustained
southward Bz. The majority of the day was at quiet levels.
Prognoza
Quiet to active levels are expected early on 19 Sep due to sustained
southward Bz and the slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected to return on 20 Sep. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are anticipated on 21 Sep due to possible CH HSS influence.