Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja

Odnotowany: 2024 Nov 12 1230 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com

Aktywność słoneczna

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 3889 (S10E04, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) remained the primary producer of activity with several C-class flares, the largest a C4.4 at 11/1428 UTC. The CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at 11/1428 UTC centered near S48E25 was modeled and determined not to be Earth-directed.

Prognoza

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an X-class flares (R3/Strong), over 12-14 Nov.

Cząsteczki energetyczne

Podsumowanie dobowe

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Prognoza

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 12-14 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 14 Nov.

Wiatr słoneczny

Podsumowanie dobowe

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed gradually decreasing to 370 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Prognoza

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 13-14 Nov due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geoprzestrzeń

Podsumowanie dobowe

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Prognoza

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 Nov. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, are expected on 13-14 Nov with CH HSS onset.