Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum av rapporten: 2025 Nov 04 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solutbrott

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Diagram över protonflöde

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Nov 2025	137	008
05 Nov 2025	143	014
06 Nov 2025	150	025

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5914) peaking on November 04 at 01:48 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma) region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Koronamassutkastning

Further analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO-C2 data around 09:48 UTC on November 03 and associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 show a likely chance for a glancing blow arrival at Earth expected around 14:00 UTC on November 05. A second CME also associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 687 was seen in LASCO-C2 data around 00:52 UTC on November 04. Analysis of this second CME is ongoing.

Koronal hål

A recurring large coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity), which first reached the central meridian on November 03 is continuing to cross the central meridian. It’s associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth on November 06 (Other crossing times: October 08, September 10, August 15, July 20, June 22, May 26).

Solvind

Over the past 24 hours slow solar wind conditions were recorded. The solar wind speed ranged from 390 km/s to 490 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 7 to 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. Quite solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally and locally (Kp 4 & K BEL 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2025

Wolf number Catania	088
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive