Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2025 Mar 30 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4048 (S15E62, Eki/beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, an M1.9 (R1-Minor) at 29/2300 UTC, along with a M1.5 flare at 0148 UTC. AR 4048 rotated into better viewing conditions this period and revealed a trailing, large penumbral spot group. However, accurate Zurich classification remains problematic due to foreshortening effects on the limb. Region 4043 (N14W13, Dai/beta-gamma) also resulted in an R1 event at 29/2138 UTC. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity is likely with a slight chance (10%) for X-class (R3, Strong) flaring through 01 Apr.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured by GOES-16, remained at high levels with a peak flux of 2,968 pfu observed at 29/1625 UTC. The 10 MeV proton flux is slightly elevated but remains well below S1 levels likely due to the X1.1 east limb event from 28 Mar.

Прогноз

The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels through 31 Mar due to CH HSS effects and then decrease to low to moderate levels on 01 Apr. 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 levels through 01 Apr.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS effects. Total field was primarily between 5 to 7 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from peaks near 520 km/s to near 445 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was in a predominantly positive orientation.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on 30 Mar due to possible shock arrival from the X1.1 CME on 28 Mar combined with weak positive CH HSS influences, the latter of which is likely to continue through 31 Mar. An additional weak enhancement is possible on 01 Apr due to a CME that left the Sun on 27 Mar.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Прогноз

Quiet to isolated active conditions are possible on 30 Mar due to potential effects from shock influence from the 28 Mar CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 Mar and again on 01 Apr due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects and then possible glancing influences from the 27 Mar CME, respectively.