Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Nov 13 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C8.2 at 12/1401 UTC related to a filament eruption near N17W90. Slight decay was observed in Region 3883 (S06W74, Eao/beta) and 3889 (S09W02, Fki/beta-gamma-delta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Прогноз

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 13-15 Nov.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Прогноз

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 13-15 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 14 Nov.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed ranged from 340 km/s to 415 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Прогноз

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 13-15 Nov due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Прогноз

Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, are expected on 13-15 Nov with CH HSS onset.