Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Dec 12 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar flare activity reached high levels due to an M6.7 (R2-Moderate) flare observed at 11/1549 UTC from old Region 3912 (S06, L=083). Region 3920 (N22E03, Eki/beta-delta) displayed overall area growth and developed a delta magnetic configuration. Region 3917 (S08W35, Dki/beta-gamma) showed moderate growth as well. New Region 3924 (S20E23, Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive. All other regions have been relatively quiet. A halo CME was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 11/2124 UTC. The ejecta was determined to have originated from behind the limb, so no Earth-directed component is expected. An additional narrow CME was observed off the SW beginning at 12/1000 UTC (in C2). This event appears to be associated with a filament eruption in the vicinity of old AR 3916 (S15, L=20). Analysis of this event is ongoing at the time of this summary.

Прогноз

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14 Dec based primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922 (S18E48, Cso/beta).

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to elevated moderate levels with a maximum flux of 802 pfu observed at 11/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 12-13 Dec and decrease back to normal to moderate levels on 14 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 12-14 Dec.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field was steady at around 4-6 nT with a variable Bz component between -5 to +4 nT. Solar wind speeds varied between 350-415 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) orientation.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels on 12-14 Dec.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at mostly quiet levels on 12-14 Dec.