Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2024 Nov 15 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class flares were observed, mostly from Region 3889 (S09W29, Fki/beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was a C2.9 at 14/0913 UTC from Region 3889. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3889 and in Regions 3886 (S07W76, Axx/alpha) and 3892 (S11W15, Bxo/beta). New flux emergence was observed in the NE quadrant and was numbered 3894 (N24E44, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Ennustus

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 15-17 Nov.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Ennustus

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 15-17 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 17 Nov.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind speed increased after 14/0345 UTC likely due to the onset of CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 448 km/s. Total field increased from 6 nT to 14 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-12 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Ennustus

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 15-17 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. A grazing from the 13 Nov CME associated with the M1.7 flare at 13/1708 UTC is possible late on 17 Nov.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached active levels for the final period of the UT day.

Ennustus

Quiet to active levels are expected on 15 Nov with quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 Nov as HSS conditions persist.