Two coronal mass ejections, G3 storm watch
dinsdag 29 maart 2022 18:03 UTC
What an exciting two days we are having, sunspot regions 2978 and especially 2975 are really delivering with the latter group producing countless of C-class solar flares and even a couple of M-class solar flares. Yesterday's M4.0 solar flare of course being the strongest thus far. This M4.0 solar flare and a smaller M1 solar flare launched two coronal mass ejections into space, both of which have an earth-directed component. Sunspot region 2975 remains a very complex Beta-Gamma-Delta sunspot region which is capable of more M-class activity, and perhaps even a low X-class flare.
The NOAA SWPC has modeled (see the tweet below) both coronal mass ejections into their WSA-ENLIL solar wind model and predicts the two plasma clouds to merge into one. This is due to the fact that the second coronal mass ejection from the M1 solar flare is faster than the M4.0 coronal mass ejection that was launched just hours earlier. What this will do for the strength of the combined cloud at impact is anyone's guess. Will their combined effects disturb the interplanetary magnetic field and make it a weak impact or are we going to see a really dense cloud with favorable magnetic characteristics? We will have to wait and see but as you can see on the model run, the NOAA SWPC expects an impact just after midnight UTC on Thursday, 31 March. Do we expect a geomagnetic storm? Oh yes we do! The NOAA SWPC has just moments ago upgraded their storm watch to a strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch which equals a Kp-value of 7. If we do reach the G3 geomagnetic storm threshold, aurora might become visible from locations like southern England, the Netherlands, Wellington (New Zealand) and Denver, CO (USA).
The NOAA SWPC has modeled the two coronal mass ejections which were launched during yesterday's M-class activity. The ENLIL model predicts a combined impact (second CME is faster than the first one) just after midnight UTC on 31 March. Moderate G2 storm conditions are possible. pic.twitter.com/dnon5fqQAS
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) March 29, 2022
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