Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2025 Apr 14 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity remained at high levels due to frequent low-level M-class flare (R1-Minor) events. Region 4055 (N07W75, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was again responsible for all M-class activity, the largest being an M3.2 flare at 13/1851 UTC. This region appeared to lose a few of its trailer spots as made its way around the W limb. Subtle decay was observed in Region 4060 (N09E21, Dao/beta-gamma), although it did increase its magnetic complexity slightly. Region 4061 (N19W15, Cso/beta) developed slightly during the period, but had started to show signs of decay by the end. Region 4058 (N17W79, Cao/beta) exhibited slight decay as it made its way off the visible disk. Region 4056 (S08W24, Hsx/alpha) remained largely unchanged. Two filament eruptions were observed. The first was approximately 20 degrees long, centered near S20E20, and began erupting after ~12/2130 UTC. The second filament was approximately 12 degrees long, centered near S22W09, and began erupting after ~13/0500 UTC. CME signatures were observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery following each event. Initial analysis and modeling indicated a likely Earth-directed component, with anticipated arrival at Earth near midday on 16 Apr.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for isolate X-flares (R3-Strong), on 14-15 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential from Region 4055. By 16 Apr, activity is expected to be decrease to low levels, with M-class flares (R1 -Minor) likely, as Region 4055 moves further beyond the west limb.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Voorspelling

The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 15 Apr. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach S1 (Minor) levels on 14-15 Apr due to the flare potential of Region 4055.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters remained enhanced as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS continued. Total magnetic field strength was between 3-8 nT, the Bz component varied between -6 and +4 nT, and solar wind speeds steadily decreased from ~465 km/s to ~435 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector, with a few, isolated rotations into a positive position.

Voorspelling

The solar wind environment is expected to continue under continued, yet waning, negative polarity CH HSS influence through 15 Apr. By mid to late day on 16 Apr, substantial enhancements are expected with the anticipated arrival of the CME(s) that left the Sun on 13 Apr.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continuing CH HSS effects.

Voorspelling

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods likely, on 14-15 Apr as CH influence lingers. Mostly unsettled levels are expected early on 16 Apr. By mid to late day on 16 Apr, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 13 Apr.