Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2024 Dec 25 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

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Solar activity reached high levels this period with 7 M-class flares, all but two from Region 3932 (S18E13, Fkc/beta-gamma). The largest flare of the period was an M4.7 at 24/0019 UTC, followed by an M4.1 at 24/0841 UTC. Region 3933 (S08W06, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was also quite active this period, producing several C-class flares. Region 3938 (N20E66, Dsi/beta-gamma) was also numbered this period and produced an M1.2 at 24/2334. Development continued among the cluster of active regions in the SE quadrant, with Region 3936 (N13E13, Dkc/beta) also seeing substantial growth. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. The M4.1 flare had an associated Type II radio burst and a CME that became visible is coronagraph imagery at 24/0936 UTC. Modeling has indicated that this CME likely has an Earth-directed component, with a potential arrival on 26 Dec. Another narrow southward CME is visible in coronagraph imagery at 24/1524, possibly associated with an M1.1 flare at 24/1410 UTC. Model analysis indicated there is no Earth-directed component. An additional CME, associated with an M1.0 flare at 24/2028 UTC from Region 3930 (S23W89, Eai/beta), became visible in coronagraph imagery at 2024 UTC. Analysis is currently ongoing at the time of this summary.

Voorspelling

M-class flare activity is expected (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3/Strong), over 25-27 Dec.

Energetische deeltjes

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The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background but well below the S1 threshold, mostly due to activity that erupted on the far side of the Sun over 20 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.

Voorspelling

There remains a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 25-27 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 27 Dec.

Zonnewind

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Solar wind parameters varied this period. Total field was at nominal background levels, with a peak of 6 nT, and Bz varying between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained elevated, averaging 600 km/s in the first half of the period, then slowly decreasing to ~520 km/s. The phi angle remained predominantly negative.

Voorspelling

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 25-27 Dec, due to potential influences from two CMEs (from 23 Dec and 24 Dec) and a coronal hole HSS.

Geospace

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The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.

Voorspelling

G1 (Minor) storming conditions are expected on 25-26 Dec, with a slight chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) periods, due to the arrival of a CME from 23 Dec and another from 24 Dec. 27 Dec is expected to be quiet to active, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence plus additional waning influences from the CMEs.