Bespreking van het voorspelde ruimteweer

Datum verslag: 2025 Apr 05 0030 UTC
Dit rapport werd door opgemaakt door het Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

Zonneactiviteit

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

Solar activity was at low levels with only a few, low-level C-class flares observed. The largest flare of the period was a C5.7 at 04/2338 UTC from the NW limb. Newly numbered Region 4052 (S21W35, Cro/beta) produced a C4.4/Sf flare at 04/1446 UTC. Region 4043 (N18W83, Cao/beta) added a C3.3 flare at 04/1024 UTC and a C2.2/Sf flare at 04/1328 UTC as it approached the western limb. Region 4048 (S16W02, Fkc/beta-gamma), still the largest, most complex spot group, contributed a C1.8 flare at 04/0734 UTC, but was otherwise inactive. This region, along with Regions 4043 and 4045 (S13W32, Cso/beta) all observed slight decay during the period. The remaining regions, including newly numbered Regions 4051 (S08W57, Cro/beta) and 4053 (S09W19, Cro/beta) all exhibited at least slight growth during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Voorspelling

Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 05-07 Apr with decreasing chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong radio blackouts) on 05 Apr, with chances decreasing on 06-07 Apr.

Energetische deeltjes

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to near background levels.

Voorspelling

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, with high levels likely on 05-07 Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 05 Apr, with chances decreasing on 06-07 Apr.

Zonnewind

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced with residual CME effects combined with likely CIR influences. Total field ranged from 6-14 nT while the Bz component was between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speed slowly inched up to see a max of near 570 km/s. Phi angle was in a negative orientation throughout the period.

Voorspelling

Solar wind parameters are expected to see HSS influence persist through 07 Apr. There is a slight chance for a grazing from the 03 Apr CME early on 06 Apr, however confidence is low.

Geospace

Samenvatting afgelopen 24h

The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) levels, likely due to combined CME and CIR effects.

Voorspelling

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming early on 05 Apr due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 06-07 Apr as HSS effects continue, yet gradually wane.