Het archief bekijken van zondag 22 maart 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 081 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 22 MAR 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8185 (S24E64)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS. A TYPE
II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THE FLARE AND
ANOTHER TYPE II OCCURRED FOLLOWING THE MODERATELY IMPULSIVE X-RAY
FLARE. A SMALL WEAK CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING
THIS FLARE BUT WAS OBSERVED TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. THIS
REGION HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE A MODERATE SIZE F-CLASS REGION WITH
INDICATIONS OF MIXED POLARITIES. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE TWO ABUTTED
REGIONS SHARING A GENERALLY EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. HOWEVER,
CONFLICTING MAGNETIC INFORMATION MADE CONFIRMATION OF ABUTTED
REGIONS IMPOSSIBLE. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED.
A SMALL FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N27W36 FADED BETWEEN 22/1230-1901Z.
SMALL REGION 8186 (N09W23) WAS VISIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND FADED
MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8185 IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8179 (S24W87) IS MAKING
ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS
FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 21-2100Z tot 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVE
INTERVAL WAS FROM 22/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND DATA DURING THE PERIOD
SHOWED A MODERATELY HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AND RISING TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 23 MAR tot 25 MAR
Klasse M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 22 MAR 128
Voorspeld 23 MAR-25 MAR 120/115/103
90 dagen gemiddelde 22 MAR 098
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR 020/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR 010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR 005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 23 MAR tot 25 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 30% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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