Het archief bekijken van maandag 4 mei 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 May 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Nummer 124 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 MAY 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AT 03/2129Z AN M1/1B TENFLARE (810 FLUX UNITS, 8 MINUTES DURATION)
ACCOMPANIED
BY A MAJOR TYPE IV SWEEP, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1B FLARE IN REGION
8210 (S17W50) AND A SIMULTANEOUS SUBFAINT FLARE IN REGION 8214
(N27E18). SYMPATHETIC FLARING HAS BEEN A CHARACTERISTIC OF THESE TWO
WIDELY SEPARATED REGIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. REGION 8210 HAS
FRAGMENTED AND SHOWN CONSIDERABLE DECAY, BUT REGION 8214 IS STILL
GROWING IN WHITE LIGHT ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED THE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGETIC EVENTS. AN ACTIVE
PROMINENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WAS OBSERVED, BUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE BASED ON THE COMBINED FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8210 AND
8214. THE PROBABILITY OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY HAS LESSENED WITH THE
RECENT SIMPLIFICATION OF REGION 8210, BUT ADDITIONAL GROWTH IN
REGION 8214 COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO NEW MAJOR EVENTS.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSUMED TO BE RELATED TO
COMPLEX SOLAR WIND STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF ENERGETIC
SOLAR EVENTS BEGINNING ON 29 APRIL, AND ESPECIALLY AN X1 X-RAY EVENT
THAT REACHED MAXIMUM 02/1342 UT. A SHOCK PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT
AT APPROXIMATELY 04/0229 UT THAT WAS OBSERVED AT EARTH APPROXIMATELY
30 MINUTES LATER. THEREAFTER, A TWO-HOUR PERIOD OF VERY STRONG
(ABOUT 40 NT) SOUTHWARD SOLAR WIND MAGNETIC FIELD WAS OBSERVED,
RESULTING IN K INDICES OF 8 IN BOULDER BETWEEN 03-09 UT AND REPORTS
OF AURORAL SIGHTINGS IN THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. THE ENERGETIC
PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 02/1405 ENDED 04/0310 UT.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS AT STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE IT IS CLEAR THAT THE LEADING PORTION OF THE CORONAL
MASS EJECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1 FLARE HAS ARRIVED, IT IS NOT
CERTAIN WHETHER THE CORE OF THE EJECTION WILL YET ARRIVE. THEREFORE,
STORM LEVEL WARNINGS ARE ADVISED THROUGH 5 MAY. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 7 MAY UNLESS NEW SOLAR EVENTS OCCUR.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 MAY tot 07 MAY
Klasse M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 04 MAY 121
Voorspeld 05 MAY-07 MAY 135/140/145
90 dagen gemiddelde 04 MAY 105
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAY 037/057
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAY 086/100
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAY-07 MAY 050/060-025/045-010/025
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 MAY tot 07 MAY
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 10% | 30% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 60% | 20% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 10% | 30% | 50% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 65% | 20% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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