Het archief bekijken van zondag 23 augustus 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 235 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 AUG 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8307 (N31E22)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 23/0934Z WITH A 2695 MHZ BURST OF 500
SFU. THIS REGION BEGAN A DECAY TREND DURING THE PERIOD. THE DELTA
CONFIGURATION REMAINED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION BUT
OVERALL, THE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS DECREASING. REGION 8310 (N24E33)
PRODUCED A C3/SF FLARE AT 23/1125Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
LOW TO MODERATE. CONTINUED DECAY AND SIMPLIFICATION IN REGION 8307
COULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE OF FLARE PRODUCTION. ONLY
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
X-CLASS FLARES REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE FROM THIS REGION THAT
PRODUCED A TOTAL OF 4 X-CLASS EVENTS EARLY IN ITS VISIBLE HEMISPHERE
TRANSIT.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
WAS FROM 23/0000-0900Z. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW AN INCREASE OF
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY TO NEAR 600 KM/S AND DECREASE OF DENSITY TO 2-3
P/CC. THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE EARTH IS EMBEDDED IN A CORONAL
HOLE STREAM. MAGNETIC DATA IMPLICATE THE EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF
THE NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE AS THE SOURCE OF THIS STREAM. THE
ENERGETIC (GT 10 MEV) PROTON ENHANCEMENT THAT BEGAN ON 20 AUG
CONTINUED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT A FLUX OF APPROXIMATELY 2 PFU.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
CONTINUE AT PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH 24 AUG.
MINOR STORM INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A SLIGHTLY MORE
INTENSE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED ON 25-26 AUG AS A RESULT OF THE M9
FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME OF 22 AUG. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE FOR THAT PERIOD. THE
PROTON ENHANCEMENT SHOULD DECAY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 AUG tot 26 AUG
Klasse M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
Klasse X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 23 AUG 126
Voorspeld 24 AUG-26 AUG 127/128/130
90 dagen gemiddelde 23 AUG 116
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 AUG 013/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG 015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG 020/020-025/020-025/030
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 24 AUG tot 26 AUG
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 15% | 15% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 20% | 20% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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