Het archief bekijken van donderdag 27 augustus 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY :::::::::::::::
SDF Nummer 239 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 AUG 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE ONLY ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN A C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS AND SUBFLARES FROM REGIONS 8307
(N31W28) AND 8319 (N21W03). REGION 8307 CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY
AND SIMPLIFICATION. FILAMENT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE REGION HAS
DECREASED. REGION 8319 (N19W03) HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND DEVELOP.
IT IS STILL SIMPLE AND SMALL IN SPOT AREA, BUT THE PLAGE AREA HAS
GROWN. SUBFLARES AND ARCH FILAMENT SYSTEMS INDICATE THE REGION IS
STILL EMERGING. THE REGION IS CLOSE TO OLDER REGION 8314 (N16E03)
AND IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN 8319, THE MERGER OF THE REGIONS MAY
PRODUCE ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF THEIR INTERACTION.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. A SPORADIC CLASS M FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8307. THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF REGIONS 8314/8319 IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES REACHED 7 AND 8 BETWEEN 27/0300 UT AND
27/1200 UT. THE FORBUSH DECREASE THAT BEGAN LATE ON 25 AUGUST
CONTINUES, WITH NEUTRON MONITOR COUNTING RATES FROM THULE DEPRESSED
BY ABOUT 6 PERCENT TODAY. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA HAS
PROVIDED CONTINUOUS INFORMATION THROUGH THE PERIOD OF THE
GEOMAGNETIC STORM. FROM 26/0600 UT THROUGH 26/2200 UT, THE
ESTIMATED SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED STEADILY FROM ABOUT 400 KM/S
TO APPROXIMATELY 900 KM/S, THEN DECLINED JUST AS STEADILY TO ABOUT
600 KM/S BY 27/0900 UT. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DENSITY REMAINED LESS
THAN 10 /CM3 AND THE TEMPERATURE INCREASED FROM 500,000 K UP TO
1,000,000 K AT 26/2100 UT, THEN DOWN TO 20,000 AT 27/1300 UT. THE
RESULT APPEARED TO BE A FAST, HOT, LOW-DENSITY STREAM. THE
INTERPLANETARY BZ FIELD HAS REMAINED NEARLY FLAT AT ABOUT -10 TO -15
NANOTESLA MOST OF TODAY, BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF MOVING TOWARD LESS
NEGATIVE VALUES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUXES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT 27
AUGUST. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT
26/2050 UT. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV, AS
MEASURED BY THE GOES SATELLITE AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, HAD
DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 PFU EARLY ON 27 AUG AFTER PREVIOUSLY REACHING
NEAR THE SEC ALERT THRESHOLD OF 1000 PFU ON PREVIOUS DAYS. SINCE
27/0900 UT, THE FLUXES HAVE BEEN INCREASING.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS BUT WITH
DECLINING INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MID-LATITUDE K-INDICES
ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH VALUES OF 6 OR 7 DURING THE COMING WESTERN
HEMISPHERE NIGHT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV
WILL REACH ALERT LEVELS BY THE TIME THIS FORECAST IS EFFECTIVE. THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW DECLINE
BUT REMAIN ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS WELL INTO 27 AUGUST. THE CURRENT
FORBUSH DECREASE IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE IN INTENSITY.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 AUG tot 30 AUG
Klasse M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 27 AUG 135
Voorspeld 28 AUG-30 AUG 135/135/135
90 dagen gemiddelde 27 AUG 117
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG 028/039
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG 084/107
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG 030/030-010/015-010/010
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 28 AUG tot 30 AUG
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 20% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 40% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 15% | 05% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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