Het archief bekijken van woensdag 4 november 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 NOV 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 04 NOV 141
Voorspeld 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150
90 dagen gemiddelde 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 35% | 15% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 50% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
From owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Wed Nov 4 17:41:46 1998
Received: by proton.sel.noaa.gov
(1.37.109.18/16.2) id AA229939306; Wed, 4 Nov 1998 17:41:46 -0500
Return-Path:
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 22:40:04 GMT
From: Space Environment Center
Message-Id: <199811042240.WAA03261@solar.sec.noaa.gov>
To: forecast-send@proton.sel.noaa.gov
Subject: RSGA
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Sender: owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov
Precedence: bulk
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 1998 Nov 04 2240 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVIT
: : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : : : : :
SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 NOV 1998
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
Klasse M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 04 NOV 141
Voorspeld 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150
90 dagen gemiddelde 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 35% | 15% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 50% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Alle tijden in UTC
<< Keer terug naar de dagelijkse overview pagina