Het archief bekijken van woensdag 4 november 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
Klasse M30%30%30%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       04 NOV 141
  Voorspeld   05 NOV-07 NOV  145/150/150
  90 dagen gemiddelde        04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  ???/???
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%15%
Kleine storm15%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%50%20%
Kleine storm25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
From owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Wed Nov 4 17:41:46 1998 Received: by proton.sel.noaa.gov (1.37.109.18/16.2) id AA229939306; Wed, 4 Nov 1998 17:41:46 -0500 Return-Path: Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 22:40:04 GMT From: Space Environment Center Message-Id: <199811042240.WAA03261@solar.sec.noaa.gov> To: forecast-send@proton.sel.noaa.gov Subject: RSGA Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Precedence: bulk :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 1998 Nov 04 2240 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVIT : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : : : : : SDF Nummer 308 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 NOV 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI, BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON 02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376 LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT 04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER 6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
Klasse M30%30%30%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       04 NOV 141
  Voorspeld   05 NOV-07 NOV  145/150/150
  90 dagen gemiddelde        04 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV  7/7
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV  20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 NOV tot 07 NOV
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%35%15%
Kleine storm15%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief50%50%20%
Kleine storm25%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%

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