Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 25 februari 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 056 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 FEB 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF AT 25/0919Z FROM REGION 8888
(N36E43). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT BUT WAS
DIRECTED OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. OTHER THAN THIS EVENT, THE REGION WAS
MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8889 (N21E59) SHOWED ITSELF
AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP AND PRODUCED SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A LARGE NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AT S13E72
AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8891. THIS AREA WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WERE ALSO HIGH LATITUDE MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN TO
MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8891,
8889, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, REGION 8888. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT
GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8891 AND 8889.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE 650 KM/S.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH AROUND
25/1710Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING FOR 26 FEB. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE
ON 27-28 FEB. QUIET TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THAT PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 FEB tot 28 FEB
Klasse M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Klasse X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 25 FEB 210
Voorspeld 26 FEB-28 FEB 213/215/218
90 dagen gemiddelde 25 FEB 165
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB 020/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB 020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB 018/018-012/015-008/013
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 26 FEB tot 28 FEB
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 40% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 40% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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