Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 4 maart 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 064 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 04 MAR 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8882 (S15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C6/SF AT
03/2345Z. TWO NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS EMERGED: REGION 8899 (S11E19) AND
REGION 8900 (S15E16). REGION 8900 SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES. THE GROUP DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL, D-TYPE
REGION BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8891 (S15W29) IS
STILL THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT SHOWED SIGNS OF DECAY AND
WEAKENING MAGNETIC FIELDS. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N40W36
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0804-0900Z. X-RAY IMAGES FROM THE YOHKOH
SPACECRAFT SHOWED AN ENHANCED LOOP SYSTEM FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DISAPPEARANCE, SUGGESTING THAT A CME OCCURRED. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S35E50 DISAPPEARED AT ABOUT 1800Z. THIS DISAPPEARANCE
WAS FOLLOWED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA RIBBONS, A WEAK X-RAY ENHANCEMENT,
A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND A FAINT CME SIGNATURE AS OBSERVED BY THE
MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE ERUPTION OF THE
FILAMENT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF REGIONS 8886 AND 8882 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT. REGION 8891
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR EVENT.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 03-2100Z tot 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS
AT THE L1 POINT GAVE NO INDICATION OF RECENT FLARE-ASSOCIATED
CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ACTIVE PERIODS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD FOLLOW ON THE
SECOND DAY, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD
DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT, BUT DECREASING POSSIBILITY THAT A GLANCING
BLOW FROM CME ACTIVITY OF 2 MARCH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 05 MAR tot 07 MAR
Klasse M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
Klasse X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 04 MAR 200
Voorspeld 05 MAR-07 MAR 195/190/190
90 dagen gemiddelde 04 MAR 170
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR 005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR 005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR 015/018-010/015-005/010
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 05 MAR tot 07 MAR
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 20% | 15% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 25% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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