Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 23 september 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 23 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 267 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 23 SEP 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 22-2100Z tot 23-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C8 FLARE AT 22/2350 UTC. EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS EVENT WAS DUE TO ACTIVITY BEHIND THE NW LIMB.
ELSEWHERE, REGION 9169 (N11E04) REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO SEVERAL LESSER
C-CLASS SUBFAINT FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND A DISAPPEARING
11-DEGREE SOLAR FILAMENT, THOUGH WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF ANY CME
ACTIVITY OF SIGNIFICANCE. REGIONS 9166 (S11W44) AND 9167 (N14W11)
WERE ALSO SOURCES OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169 REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR
FLARE ACTIVITY, AND REGION 9166 A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF MODERATE
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE,
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS AND ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING ON DAYS TWO AND THREE, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. MODERATE ENHANCEMENTS OF
GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE EXPECTED
TO RECUR DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 24 SEP tot 26 SEP
Klasse M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
Klasse X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 23 SEP 225
Voorspeld 24 SEP-26 SEP 225/225/220
90 dagen gemiddelde 23 SEP 180
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 010/010-018/020-015/015
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 24 SEP tot 26 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
VII. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
Alle tijden in UTC
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