Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 26 september 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 270 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 26 SEP 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 25-2100Z tot 26-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C-8 X-RAY BURST AT 26/2000Z. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED IN ANY NUMBERED REGIONS BUT SURGING NOTED ON THE SE LIMB
BECAME PARTICULARLY BRIGHT AND ENHANCED DURING THIS X-RAY EVENT.
LARGE REGION 9169 (N12W34) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND APPEARS TO NO
LONGER CONTAIN A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONLY LOW C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION. REGION 9173 (S13E51)
UNDERWENT SOME GROWTH AND PRODUCED A C4/SF FLARE AT 26/1231Z. NEW
REGIONS 9174 (S30W60) AND 9175 (N21E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169, THOUGH DECAYING, IS STILL CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK
MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
SOLAR WIND SPEED WAS AVERAGING NEAR 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE ON DAYS ONE AND TWO. A CME ASSOCIATED WITH
THE M-1 FLARE ON 25/0215Z MAY ENHANCE THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
THROUGH DAY TWO. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON DAY THREE.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
Klasse M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 26 SEP 224
Voorspeld 27 SEP-29 SEP 210/200/190
90 dagen gemiddelde 26 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP 013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP 020/021
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP 020/020-012/010-012/010
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 27 SEP tot 29 SEP
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 50% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 50% | 50% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 05% |
VII. COMMENTS
EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED
CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC
PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE
CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR
SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML
Alle tijden in UTC
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