Het archief bekijken van donderdag 9 november 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 314 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 09 Nov 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z
Solar activity increased to high levels. An M7 X-ray
flare occurred at 08/2328 UTC. Regions 9218 (N20W72), 9213 (N04W92),
and 9212 (N10W86) produced optical flares during the M7, thereby
making a single-point source determination difficult. This event was
accompanied by a halo CME, Type IV radio sweep, and a 710 sfu
Tenflare. Optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flares occurred at 09/0314
UTC and 09/0610 UTC. Region 9221 (S14E06) produced an M1/Sf flare at
09/1613 UTC associated with an 8-degree filament disappearance. New
Region 9228 (N20E29) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible
during the period.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active
conditions occurred during the 09/1500 - 1800 UTC period. Proton
events at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV were
associated with the M7 flare mentioned above. The greater than 100
MeV event began at 08/2355 UTC and reached a maximum of 347 pfu at
09/0350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 08/2350 UTC and
reached a (preliminary) peak of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600 UTC. The
proton event was in progress as the period ended. A polar cap
absorption event was associated with the proton event. Peak
absorption was estimated to be 33 dB at 09/1640 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled levels during the first day. Activity is
expected to increase to active to major storm levels during the
remainder of the period due to an expected CME passage associated
with the M7 event mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV proton
event is expected to end during the first day, but the greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the period. The
polar cap absortion event is expected to continue through the period
as well.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
Klasse M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 99% | 99% | 90% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 09 Nov 166
Voorspeld 10 Nov-12 Nov 160/155/150
90 dagen gemiddelde 09 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 08 Nov 014/015
Geraamd Afr/Ap 09 Nov 012/015
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/015-030/050-020/020
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 10 Nov tot 12 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 20% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 40% | 20% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 25% | 15% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 20% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 40% | 20% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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