Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 25 november 2000
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 330 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 Nov 2000
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
Solar activity continued at high levels. The period
began with another X-class flare from Region 9236 (N22W20). The
X1/2n flare occurred at 24/2159Z and had associated minor
centimetric radio bursts and a CME. Reports of strong doppler shifts
in the NE-SW filament in Region 9240 (N08E34) were soon followed by
an impressive eruption at 25/0131Z. The eruption included an M8/2N,
long duration ribbon flare with strong radio bursts including a
14000 sfu Tenflare. Strong Type II and IV sweeps also occurred with
this flare and a CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 9236
flared again, producing an M3/2n flare and CME at 25/0920Z. The
period ended with an X1/2b from Region 9236 with moderate to strong
radio bursts and Type II sweep (910km/s). It appears that yet
another Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. No
significant new growth was noted in Region 9236 over the past 18
hours, but it continues to produce frequent flares in a complex,
beta-gamma configuration exceeding 600 millionths of white light
coverage.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 is capable of continued M
and X-class events. A filament has reformed in the vicinity of the
0131Z eruption in Region 9240. If the present pattern continues, we
should see another major event from this region in the next three
days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 24/1520Z is still in progress and is currently ranging 12
to 18 pfu. The maximum so far was 93 pfu at 24/1920Z. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event that began at 24/1720Z, ended at 24/1820Z
with a peak flux of 1.1 pfu at 24/1810Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach minor to major storm levels early in day one. We
observed as many as six Earth directed CME'S in the last 48 hours,
so minor to major storm levels are expected through the next three
days. Another proton event is possible should Regions 9236 or 9240
produce another major flare.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 Nov tot 28 Nov
Klasse M | 75% | 70% | 60% |
Klasse X | 50% | 40% | 35% |
Proton | 80% | 50% | 40% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 25 Nov 202
Voorspeld 26 Nov-28 Nov 200/195/195
90 dagen gemiddelde 25 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 24 Nov 009/009
Geraamd Afr/Ap 25 Nov 010/012
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 060/070-050/060-030/040
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 26 Nov tot 28 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 20% | 20% | 50% |
Kleine storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 40% | 40% | 20% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 20% | 20% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 50% | 50% | 30% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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