Het archief bekijken van woensdag 11 april 2001
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2001 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 101 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 11 Apr 2001
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. A single M-class event
occurred during the period. Region 9415 (S22W27) produced an M2/1f
parallel ribbon flare at 11/1326 UTC. This event was accompanied by
Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 540 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and a
full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Two new regions were
numbered: 9426 (S09E40) and 9427 (S07W12).
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 can be expected to produce
another major flare during the period.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 10-2100Z tot 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Two
discernable shocks were detected by the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 11/1300 and 11/1520 UTC. These effects were most
likely the precursors for the two earth-directed CME's produced on
9-10 April. The resulting CME's arrival at earth produced severe
geomagnetic storming during the period of 11/1500-1800 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period long,
reaching a maximum of 322 PFU near the end of the period. A polar
cap absorption (PCA) event remained in effect during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux has at high levels for the first
part of the period and then decreased to moderate levels for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to major storm levels during the
first day of the period. A second geomagnetic storm is expected to
arrive late on 12 April or early on 13 April UTC. This disturbance
will be the result of the full-halo CME described in Section 1A.
Brief severe storm levels at high latitudes can be expected.
Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 14 April as the
storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to
end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to be at mostly moderate levels during the
period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 12 Apr tot 14 Apr
Klasse M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Klasse X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 80% | 25% | 25% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 11 Apr 160
Voorspeld 12 Apr-14 Apr 160/160/155
90 dagen gemiddelde 11 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/009
Geraamd Afr/Ap 11 Apr 050/060
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 060/090-050/050-020/025
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 12 Apr tot 14 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 15% | 15% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 45% | 45% | 10% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 15% | 25% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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