Het archief bekijken van maandag 27 mei 2002
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 May 27 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 147 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 May 2002
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9957 (N10W73) produced an M2/2f flare at 27/1810 UTC associated with
minor discrete radio emission. Gradual decay may have continued in
this region, but it was difficult to tell given limb foreshortening
effects. However, it appeared that a weak delta persisted within its
northern cluster of spots. Region 9961 (S22W30) produced isolated
subflares as it continued to decay. Region 9970 (N05E41) appeared to
stabilize as a simply-structured D-type spot group. Active surging
and subflare activity was observed on the southeast limb near SE17.
This limb activity may indicate the active return of old Region 9934
(S16, L = 211). A filament erupted from the northeast quadrant
around midday. The eruption was associated with C2 X-ray event and a
CME off the northeast limb. The CME did not appear to be Earth
directed.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
during the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare as
well.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to quiet to active levels with
minor storm conditions observed at some high latitude stations. This
activity was likely due to coronal hole effects. ACE solar wind data
indicated a gradual rise in velocities during the period with peak
velocities in the 700 to 800 km/sec range.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Quiet to active conditions are
expected during the first half of the period. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected during the remainder of the period. There is
a slight chance for a proton event until 29 May.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 May tot 30 May
Klasse M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 27 May 187
Voorspeld 28 May-30 May 180/180/180
90 dagen gemiddelde 27 May 183
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 26 May 009/010
Geraamd Afr/Ap 27 May 017/025
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 28 May tot 30 May
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 30% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 35% | 30% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 12% | 12% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Alle tijden in UTC
<< Keer terug naar de dagelijkse overview pagina