Het archief bekijken van donderdag 3 april 2003
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 093 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 03 Apr 2003
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 02-2100Z tot 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels. A significant
C-class flare from Region 324 (S11W35) occurred at 1027 UTC. This
region has rapidly increased in both size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. New Regions 329 (N01E18) and 330 (N07E74) were
numbered today. No other significant activity occurred.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 324 (S11W35) and 321 (N08W54) are sufficiently
complex and should continue to be for the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 02-2100Z tot 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which began on 30 March is subsiding, but continued instability in
the interplanetary magnetic field is maintaining our unsettled
activity levels. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active for the next two days due to the subsiding high speed stream.
By day three, the solar wind will increase again, and combined with
the potential for southward Bz, is likely to cause an increase to
unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storming.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 04 Apr tot 06 Apr
Klasse M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
Klasse X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 03 Apr 156
Voorspeld 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/155/150
90 dagen gemiddelde 03 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 02 Apr 011/020
Geraamd Afr/Ap 03 Apr 015/013
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 010/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 04 Apr tot 06 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
Alle tijden in UTC
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