Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 5 april 2003
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 095 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 05 Apr 2003
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S11W62)
produced a number of C-class flares with the largest one a C6 at
05/0916Z. Region 324 has decreased in area coverage and spot count
but has retained its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity with a
weak delta configuration evident in the northeast intermediate
spots. A C4/1f flare occurred at 05/1509Z from a spotless plage
region near S16E75. Region 321 (N09W83) continues a gradual decline
as it approaches the west limb. New Region 331 (S07W09) was
numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated M-class activity. Regions 324
and 321 have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with one
period of minor storm conditions. Solar wind was stable near 500
km/s until late in the period when it increased to over 550 km/s.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Elevated solar
wind speeds and oscillating Bz are expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Late on day two or early on day three a
weak CME shock from the M1.9 flare on 04 April may result in
isolated active to minor storm conditions.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
Klasse M | 35% | 25% | 30% |
Klasse X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 05 Apr 137
Voorspeld 06 Apr-08 Apr 135/130/120
90 dagen gemiddelde 05 Apr 135
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 04 Apr 013/026
Geraamd Afr/Ap 05 Apr 020/025
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 45% | 40% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
Alle tijden in UTC
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