Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 1 november 2003
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 305 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 Nov 2003
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region
488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1
x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z.
Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there
is any associated CME activity. This region has changed little
during the period and continues to depict a very complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. White light areal coverage is
at 1610 millionths. Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be
considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to
produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period. Slight,
yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral
coverage in white light analysis. This region is still very
impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Much of the remainder of the disk and limb
were relatively quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of
producing major flare activity.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 31-2100Z tot 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period,
approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing)
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has
remained consistently northward during the period. The greater than
10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct
maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and
3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent
days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the
elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert
threshold with continued major flare activity.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 Nov tot 04 Nov
Klasse M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
Klasse X | 35% | 30% | 25% |
Proton | 50% | 35% | 15% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 01 Nov 210
Voorspeld 02 Nov-04 Nov 200/190/175
90 dagen gemiddelde 01 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 31 Oct 073/093
Geraamd Afr/Ap 01 Nov 020/020
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 010/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 02 Nov tot 04 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 25% | 20% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 25% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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