Het archief bekijken van maandag 5 april 2010
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2010 Apr 05 2201 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 095 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 05 Apr 2010
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few low-level B-class events, primarily from newly emerging
Region 1061 (N14W11). Region 1061 is a small D-type sunspot group.
Region 1060 (N25E45) was quiet and stable and is a small C-type
sunspot group.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (06-08 April). There is, however a
chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1061.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 04-2100Z tot 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Conditions were initially quiet to unsettled, but
increased to active levels after 0300Z, and increased further to
major to severe storm levels between 0900-1200Z. The increase in
activity followed a strong shock observed at the ACE spacecraft at
0756Z which led to a sudden impulse at Earth at 0826Z (observed to
be 38 nT at the Boulder magnetometer). Numerous high-latitude
stations reported severe storm levels during the interval as did
several mid-latitude stations in the nighttime sectors. Activity
declined to active to major storm levels from 1200-1800Z and
declined further to mostly unsettled levels from 1800-2100Z. Solar
wind observations showed elevated solar wind velocity behind the
shock with speeds between 720-800 km/s with fairly strong Bz (peak
negative values around -15 nT). Solar wind speed and magnetic field
observations showed a decreasing trend during the last 4-5 hours of
the interval. The most probable source for the disturbance is the
halo CME that was observed on 03 April at 0954Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the early part of the
first day (06 April) due to persistent effects from the current
disturbance. In addition, another increase to unsettled levels with
a chance for active periods is expected late in the day and
continuing through the second day (07 April) due to the onset of a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity
levels are expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels on the
third day (08 April).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
Klasse M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 05 Apr 079
Voorspeld 06 Apr-08 Apr 082/085/085
90 dagen gemiddelde 05 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 04 Apr 011/013
Geraamd Afr/Ap 05 Apr 025/025
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 015/017-012/012-008/008
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 06 Apr tot 08 Apr
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 35% | 35% | 20% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 40% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 15% | 10% | 01% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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