Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 8 maart 2011
Activiteitenrapport
Bij elke genoemde zonnevlam in dit rapport werd een schaalfactor toegepast door het Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Vanwege de SWPC-schaalfactor worden zonnevlammen 42% kleiner gerapporteerd dan voor de wetenschappelijke data. De schaalfactor werd verwijderd uit onze gearchiveerde zonnevlamdata om de werkelijke fysieke eenheden weer te geven.
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2011 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.beUSAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 067 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 08 Mar 2011
IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Two new regions were numbered
today as Region 1170 (S26W68) and Region 1171 (S19E69). Region 1171
is a spotless plage region which produced an M1 event at 08/0358Z
with a non-earth directed CME off the east limb, and an associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1165 (S18W92) produced an
M5/1f flare at 08/1044Z. This region, along with Regions 1164
(N23W71) and 1166 (N11W01) continue to maintain their
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The SOHO/LASCO and STEREO
imagery have observed several CMEs over the past 24 hours from
Regions 1164 and 1165. After further analysis from yesterday, there
was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at
07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed. Region 1165 has
an M1 event in progress at this report time which started at
08/1946Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are
estimated for today (08 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be high
for 09 March. Activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class events for 10-11 March.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 07-2100Z tot 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The M3 event
at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the
greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in
progress. Protons crossed event threshold at 08/0120Z and so far
have reached a peak flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated
periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March).
The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME
associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of
days one and two (09-10 March).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 09 Mar tot 11 Mar
Klasse M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
Klasse X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 08 Mar 155
Voorspeld 09 Mar-11 Mar 150/145/145
90 dagen gemiddelde 08 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/010
Geraamd Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/008
Voorspeld Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 020/025-020/022-008/012
VI. Kansen op geomagnetische activiteit van 09 Mar tot 11 Mar
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad |
Actief | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Kleine storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hoge breedtegraad |
Actief | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Kleine storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Alle tijden in UTC
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