Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 12 april 2013

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetisme

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Apr 2013	140	009
13 Apr 2013	143	076
14 Apr 2013	146	022

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 075, gebaseerd op 09 stations.

Zon indexen voor 11 Apr 2013

Wolfgetal Catania	120
10cm zonneflux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschatte Ap	004
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	086 - Gebaseerd op 17 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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