Datum verslag: 2013 Jun 08 1247 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
08 Jun 2013 | 109 | 013 |
09 Jun 2013 | 108 | 011 |
10 Jun 2013 | 106 | 008 |
Solar activity is low, with only three C-class flares and one M-class flare detected in last 24 hours. The M5.9 flare peaking at 22:49 UT on June 07 originated from the Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) situated at that moment at the west solar limb, and was associated with a CME. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass was directed mostly southward of the Sun-Earth line and it is therefore not probable that the CME will arrive at the Earth. Fast growing Catania sunspot group 96 (NOAA AR 1765) which currently has beta-gamma configurations of its photospheric magnetic field, has a significant potential to produce a C-class flares, and possibly also M-class flares. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT, and the solar wind speed is currently 450 km/s. The arrival of the fast flow from the small equatorial coronal hole is expected today without significant geomagnetic impact. A CME-driven shock wave associated with the M1.3 flare on June 05, might be expected on June 09 producing at most unsettled geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions during following 48 hours.
Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 017, gebaseerd op 16 stations.
Wolfgetal Catania | 066 |
10cm zonneflux | 110 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 021 |
AK Wingst | 025 |
Geschatte Ap | 033 |
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal | 032 - Gebaseerd op 21 stations |
Dag | Start | Max | Einde | Locatie | Sterkte | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Soorten radio-uitbarstingen |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07 | 2211 | 2249 | 2304 | ---- | M5.9 | 92/1762 | VI/1 |
Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive
Alle tijden in UTC
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Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 19:56 UTC
Het OVATION-model voorspelt dat het hemisferisch vermogen 50GW zal bereiken om 17:42 UTC
Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 22:34 UTC
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Zonnevlekkenloze dagen | |
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