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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 Feb 07 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Feb 2014	188	012
08 Feb 2014	185	012
09 Feb 2014	182	005

Bulletin

Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) is slowly decaying, although still maintaining the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. It produced the strongest flare of the past 24 hours, the M2.0 flare peaking at 04:56 UT today. Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 1968, beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric field) produced an M1.9 flare peaking today at 10:29 UT. Neither of the flares was associated with a CME. We expect further flaring activity on the C- and M-level in these two groups, with an X-class flare being possible but unlikely. Due to position of these groups in the western hemisphere, a major CME in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we maintain the warning condition. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with a slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. Later today we expect the arrival of the fast flow from an extended solar coronal hole (currently stretched across the solar central meridian), resulting in a geomagnetic disturbance up to active (K = 4) level.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Feb 2014

Wolf number Catania	157
10cm solar flux	191
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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