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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2017 Oct 11 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Oct 2017	071	032
12 Oct 2017	068	014
13 Oct 2017	065	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. There is no sunspots on the visible side of solar disk. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. Integral proton flux for protons with energies above 10 MeV remained at background level. Quiet flaring conditions are expected. The earth environment is currently under the influence of an extension of a positive polar coronal hole. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 310 to 410 km/s (DSCOVR). Total interplanetary magnetic filed (IMF) increased from 2 to 12.5 nT during the past 24 hours. Kp NOAA has reached minor storm levels now, while locally at Dourbes K reached only active levels (06-09UT). During the next time slot at 09-12UT planetary geomagnetic conditions decreased till active levels again. The solar wind speed growth seems to be stabilized now around 420 km/s. WSA-ENLIL model predicts further solar wind speed growth till 500 km/s later today. Growing variations of IMF Bz component observed by DSCOVR, including long intervals of negative values (down to -10 nT) stipulate disturbed geomagnetic conditions to be observed further, most likely till minor storm levels. Isolated episode of moderate geomagnetic storm is also possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Oct 2017

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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