Datum verslag: 2018 Mar 19 1230 UTC
Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
19 Mar 2018 | 068 | 023 |
20 Mar 2018 | 068 | 013 |
21 Mar 2018 | 067 | 010 |
Solar activity was at very low levels. Active region NOAA 2702 decayed further into a spotless faculae field and was quiet. No earth- directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
Earth is under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed gradually increased from initial values around 510 km/s to peak values near 610 km/s at 04UT, before declining to its current 520 km/s (DSCOVR). A stretch of negative Bz was observed between 17 and 22UT, with values as low as -9 nT. During the second half of the period, Bz varied between mostly -3 and +3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun.
In response to the period of sustained negative Bz, geomagnetic storming conditions were observed from 18UT on 18 March till 03UT on 19 March, with Kp reaching 6 (moderate storm) during the 21-24UT interval. Dst values were modest at only -36nT.
Small near-equatorial CHs and two extensions from the negative polarity southern polar CH are moving into geo-effective positions. The associated wind streams may affect the earth environment in the next few days. Unsettled to active conditions are expected, with a chance on an isolated minor storming episode.
Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 000, gebaseerd op 16 stations.
Wolfgetal Catania | /// |
10cm zonneflux | 069 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 039 |
AK Wingst | 025 |
Geschatte Ap | 024 |
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal | 007 - Gebaseerd op 16 stations |
Dag | Start | Max | Einde | Locatie | Sterkte | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Soorten radio-uitbarstingen | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Geen |
Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive
Alle tijden in UTC
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Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 19:56 UTC
Het OVATION-model voorspelt dat het hemisferisch vermogen 50GW zal bereiken om 17:42 UTC
Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 22:34 UTC
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