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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2019 Feb 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Feb 2019	071	015
14 Feb 2019	072	013
15 Feb 2019	072	004

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours, with the X-ray flux remaining below B-class level. A new small bipolar sunspot group began emerging around midnight in the south-west quadrant of the solar disk. Quiet conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, with a small chance of isolated C-class flares. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Over the last 24 hours the solar wind initially fluctuated around 400 km/s before steadily increasing over the past 6 hours to a maximum of 480 km/s. During this increase in solar wind the total magnetic field strength increased to 9.5 nT and the Bz component reached a minimum value -8 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high speed stream associated with the extended southern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on the 10th February.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled for the majority of the 24 hour period, rising to active conditions over the last 3 hours (Kp NOAA reaching 4). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue to be unsettled with the possibility for isolated active periods, as the influence solar wind associated with the extended southern polar coronal hole is expected to continue to influence the Earth over the next few days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Feb 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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