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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2019 May 15 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2019	075	014
16 May 2019	075	023
17 May 2019	074	027

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA 2741 produced a B3.6 flare peaking at 8:40 UT on May 15. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind has been elevated since the arrival of an ICME on May 13. The observed solar wind speed at arrival suggests that this ICME is not associated with the CME of May 11, but with another CME which was not observed. Solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR decreased from about 540 to 420 km/s in the past 24 hours, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between about 2 and 10 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to stay enhanced in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-6) are possible on May 15, 16 and 17, due to the expected arrival of the May 11, 12 and 13 CMEs.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 023, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	024
10cm solar flux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	036
Estimated international sunspot number	023 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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