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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2020 Nov 26 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Nov 2020	107	007
27 Nov 2020	109	006
28 Nov 2020	110	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2786 (Beta) exhibited signs of flux emergence and continued to develop further trailer spots. The region produced a C1.8 flare at 06:52 UT Nov 26. NOAA AR 2783 (Beta) and NOAA AR 2785 (Alpha) remained quiet. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a high chance for C-class flares, particularly from NOAA AR 2786. An isolated M-class flare also remains possible.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold for the first half of the period. During the next 24 hours, the electron flux is likely to exceed the 1000 pfu level again. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed fluctated around 380 km/s (DSCOVR). The total magnetic field strength had a maximum value of 6 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed away from the Sun (phi angle in the positive sector). Over the next 48 hours the solar wind may show some weak enhancements associated with the extension to the northern polar coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Nov 23.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to active levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 0-4, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 48 hours with the possibility of an isolated active interval in response to the predicted possible further enhancements in the solar wind

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Nov 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	042 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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