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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2021 May 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 May 2021	075	008
11 May 2021	074	004
12 May 2021	073	003

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2822 (Catania sunspot group 93) has a Beta-gamma magnetic configuration and produced two C-class flares over the past 24 hours. The largest of those was a C4 flare that peaked at 13:58 UT 9 May. NOAA AR 2816 (Catania sunspot group 94) has appear on the disk during the last 24 hours, but its magnetic configuration cannot yet be assessed. Solar activity is expect to be at a low level over the next 24 hours, with one or more C-class flares likely and a low probability of an M-class flare.

An Earth-bound CME was detected in SoHO/LASCO C2 and STEREO-A/COR2 coronagraph images at around 16:00 UTC. The estimated speed is 550 km/s and it is expected to arrive late on 12 May.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Earth is under the influence of the slow solar wind. The solar wind speed ranged between 320 and 380 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component of the magnetic field fluctuated between -5 and +10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was negative (directed toward the Sun) until aproximately 00:00 UT May 10 and then changed to predominantly positive. The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. Slight enhancements in the solar wind speed remain possible due to the influence of a series of small negative polarity holes.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-2) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue to be quiet for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 031, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 09 May 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	017 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Alle tijden in UTC

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