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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2022 Feb 20 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Feb 2022	101	014
21 Feb 2022	105	024
22 Feb 2022	110	010

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Two C-class flares were observed, including a C5 flare peaking at 04:07 UT. Both originated from a returning active region that has just begun to rotate onto the disk over the north-east limb (N17E82). Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) produced B-level flaring activity but has since decayed into a plage region. Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948) and Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2952) were stable and inactive. The region that emerged yesterday in the north-east quadrant has been numbered as NOAA region 2953 and has been stable. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares probable and a low probability for M-class flares, especially from the returning active region.

A filament eruption was observed in the south-east of the solar disk with an associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed in SOHO LASCO C2 from 17:48 UT. This CME is determined to be directed predominantly southwards and is not expected to impact Earth. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours, but was far below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of the High-Speed Stream (HSS) associated with the extension to the southern polar coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on Feb 16. The speed increased from values around 330 km/s to over 540 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was enhanced for the first half of the period reaching 12 nT and had an extended period of negative Bz with a minimum value of -11 nT around 01:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from being in the negative sector to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) from 02:00 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced over the next days in response to the continued influence of the current HSS and also due to the arrival of another HSS associated with the negative polarity equatorial coronal that began to traverse the central meridian on Feb 17.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active, with one period of minor storm conditions associated with the strong negative Bz (NOAA Kp 2-5 and local K Belgium 1-4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for the next 48 hours with further minor storm intervals possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	096
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	044 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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