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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2022 Jul 13 1436 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jul 2022	173	011
14 Jul 2022	175	010
15 Jul 2022	175	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares observed. There are five numbered active regions on disk, of which NOAA Active Regions 3053 and 3055 are the most complex. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares remain possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 and 540 km/s. The total magnetic field was enhanced at the start of the period with values around 15 nT, before stabilizing around 5 nT from 20:00 UT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced for the next 48 hours due to the continue influence of the high speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active over the past 24 hours with one period of minor storm levels between 12:00 and 15:00 UT (NOAA Kp 2-5 and Local K-Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet over the next 24 hours with active intervals possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 123, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	136
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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