Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 8 augustus 2023

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2023 Aug 08 1240 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Aug 2023	170	019
09 Aug 2023	170	017
10 Aug 2023	170	017

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) has been most active, producing several M-class flares, including an X1.5 class flare on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. The second most active region was NOAA Active Region (AR) 3387 (Catania sunspot group 07) with several C and M-class flares. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) is now located at the west limb and is rotating over the far side of the Sun, however flaring activity may still be observed from the region. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C and M-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by the SIDC/Cactus tool in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images on August 07 at 20:48. This is actually two different coronal mass ejections. One is a narrow (40-45 degrees) and very slow (200-250 km/s) CME with a principal angle of about 10 degrees (North-North-Est). The other CME is associate with the X1.5 class flare produced by the NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01), which was located at the west limb. Due to the source location, which was at the west limb, no Earth-directed component of this CME is expected.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions were slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours. The passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source was observed around 22:00 UTC on August 07 and 01:00 UTC on August 08. During that time the solar wind speed increased up to 600 km/s as recorded by ACE and DSCOVR, the density dropped and the phi angle was negative. This structure could be due to the coronal mass ejection arrival from August 04. The total interplanetary magnetic field gently decreased from 12 nT to the current values of 2-4 nT . The north-south component was predominantly negative and reached down to -8.8 nT . The coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC is heading Earth and may disturb the solar wind conditions later around 12:00 UTC (+/- 12 hours). The second coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 22:25 UTC is not expected to disturb the solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled with period of active condition (NOAA Kp 1-4, K Belgium 1-4) over the past 24 hours. The active condition happened during the passage of this solar wind structure observed between 22:00 UTC on August 07 and 01:00 UTC on August 08. Due to the slight enhancement of the solar wind conditions, unsettle to active condition are expected due to the arrival of the coronal mass ejection from August 05 at 07:12 UTC.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise at 21:46 UTC on August 07 and crossed the 10 MeV warning threshold at 01:10 UTC on August 08 as measured by GOES. This proton event was following the X1.5 class flare that was observed on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10 MeV warning threshold in the next day before decreasing. New event cannot be excluded due to the high flaring activity.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 125, gebaseerd op 18 stations.

Zon indexen voor 07 Aug 2023

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Geschatte Ap	012
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	125 - Gebaseerd op 24 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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