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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jan 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Jan 2024	170	006
09 Jan 2024	172	015
10 Jan 2024	174	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C8.8-flare, with peak time 22:25 UTC on January 07, associated with NOAA AR 3534 (alpha). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. Two are newly- numbered active regions: NOAA AR 3543 (beta) has emerged near the centre of the solar disk; and NOAA AR 3544 (alpha) has rotated over the eastern limb. Furthermore, NOAA AR 3534 (alpha) will rotate over the west limb in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma), NOAA AR 3539 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk. Together with NOAA AR 3534 and NOAA AR 3538, they have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Coronale massa uitstoten

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Coronale gaten

Two small high latitude positive polarity coronal holes are passing the central meridian, one in the northern half of the Sun and the other in the southern half. No impact from these coronal holes is expected at Earth.

Zonnewind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE was between 300 km/s and 340 km/s, but there is a data gap in the ACE data between 21:43 UTC on January 07 and 08:36 UTC on January 08. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 1 nT and 6 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle transitioned from the negative (towards the Sun) to the positive sector (away from the Sun) around 17:15 UTC on January 07. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high- speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole and the possible arrival of a coronal mass ejection from January 05.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1 and K Bel 2). Due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream and coronal mass ejection, unsettled conditions with short periods of active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days, although due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 160, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	000
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	171 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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