Datum verslag: 2024 May 23 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
23 May 2024 | 196 | 007 |
24 May 2024 | 194 | 011 |
25 May 2024 | 192 | 010 |
There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. There were four M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (that evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M4.2 peaking at 02:16 UTC. NOAA AR 3683 rotated over the west limb, but is still producing significant flares (C9.8 at 07:01 UTC). NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has also potential for strong flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.
No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.
A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth (late) on 24 May.
The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.
Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 135, gebaseerd op 15 stations.
Wolfgetal Catania | 188 |
10cm zonneflux | 196 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 008 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Geschatte Ap | 004 |
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal | 151 - Gebaseerd op 21 stations |
Dag | Start | Max | Einde | Locatie | Sterkte | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Soorten radio-uitbarstingen |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22 | 1351 | 1405 | 1412 | S06W55 | M1.2 | SF | 06/3679 | ||
23 | 0205 | 0216 | 0226 | ---- | M4.2 | 06/3679 | |||
23 | 0403 | 0429 | 0454 | S09W18 | M1.7 | SF | 06/3679 | VI/2 |
Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive
Alle tijden in UTC
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Matige M1.97 zonnevlam van zonnevlekkengebied 4079
Kleine R1 radio blackout gedetecteerd (≥M1 - momenteel: M1.89)
G1 - Kleine geomagnetische storm (Kp5) Drempel bereikt: 20:58 UTC
Het OVATION-model voorspelt dat het hemisferisch vermogen 50GW zal bereiken om 21:35 UTC
Actieve geomagnetische condities (Kp4) Drempel bereikt: 20:21 UTC
Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting | 28/03/2025 | X1.1 |
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting | 12/05/2025 | M1.9 |
Laatste geomagnetische storm | 03/05/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen | |
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Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag | 08/06/2022 |
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal | |
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april 2025 | 140.6 +6.4 |
mei 2025 | 77.8 -62.8 |
Afgelopen 30 dagen | 101.4 -34 |