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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 May 28 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 May 2024	177	007
29 May 2024	190	011
30 May 2024	200	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are nine visible active regions on the solar disk. Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an C8.9 flare, with peak time 19:16 UTC on May 27 originating from Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 3691), the most complex region on disk (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The expected returning region rotating over the south-east limb, which has been numbered as Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 3697), also produced C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for further X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 07:24 UTC May 27. This CME has a plane of sky speed of around 800km/s and was predominantly directed to the east. It is associated with the X2.8 flare originating from beyond the east limb, with peak time 07:08 UTC on May 27. Due to the location of the source region, a significant Earth directed component is not expected but a minor shock arrival may be expected on May 29. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with speeds around 350 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -4 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue generally on May 28 and 29. Minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible from late on May 29, due to a possible shock associated with the halo CME of May 27 but this is low confidence.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on May 28, with a chance for active conditions on May 29 in response to the possible shock arrival from the halo CME of May 27.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA ARs 3697 or 3691, but this is unlikely due in their current position on disk.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 148, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 27 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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