Datum verslag: 2024 Jul 10 1240 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
10 Jul 2024 | 178 | 006 |
11 Jul 2024 | 177 | 015 |
12 Jul 2024 | 177 | 010 |
Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and two low M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M1.5-flare, peak time 05:59 UTC on July 10, associated with the largest and most complex active region on the visible disc, NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region remains the main contributor to the flaring activity on disc. Three new active regions near the east limb have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3742 (beta), NOAA AR 3743 (beta) and NOAA AR 3744 (alpha). They have showing low levels of activity. Two other regions appear emerging near the south-east limb together with a returning region (possibly previous NOAA AR 3713). The remaining active regions are have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 10% chances for isolated X-class flaring.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.
An equatorial to mid-latitude positive polarity coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on July 13.
Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 358 km/s and 443 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was switching between the negative and positive sectors, but was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register weak enhancements later on July 10 and July 11 with expected mild high speed stream (HSS) arrivals. More notable disturbances in the near-Earth solar wind are expected on July 13th with anticipated faster HSS arrival.
The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are expected July 10 and July 11 with anticipated high speed stream arrivals. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated for July 12th and minor storm levels are possible on July 13th.
Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.
Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 185, gebaseerd op 14 stations.
Wolfgetal Catania | 173 |
10cm zonneflux | 180 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 008 |
Geschatte Ap | 007 |
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal | 140 - Gebaseerd op 26 stations |
Dag | Start | Max | Einde | Locatie | Sterkte | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Soorten radio-uitbarstingen |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | 0544 | 0559 | 0609 | ---- | M1.5 | 85/3738 | |||
10 | 0926 | 0945 | 0953 | ---- | M1.3 | 85/3738 |
Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive
Alle tijden in UTC
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Zonnevlekkenloze dagen | |
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Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag | 08/06/2022 |
Maandelijks gemiddeld zonnevlekkengetal | |
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