Het archief bekijken van woensdag 17 juli 2024

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Jul 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2024	242	008
18 Jul 2024	235	018
19 Jul 2024	230	013

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X1.9 flare emitted by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) at 16 Jul 13:26 UTC. Five M-class flares were also detected as associated with four AR. NOAA AR 3743 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 93) produced an M5.0 at 17 Jul 06:39 UTC and an M3.4 at 17 Jul 07:08 UTC. NOAA AR 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) registered an M1.9 at 16 Jul 22:06 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) is associated with an M1.6 at 16 Jul 21:24 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 produced the more recent M-class flare, an M1.2 at 17 Jul 09:45 UTC. In the next 24 hours M-class flaring activity is expected mostly from NOAA AR 3743, 3738, 3751, or 3753 and there is a chance of an isolated, low- intensity X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO C-2 images as launched at 16/7 13:48 UTC is associated with NOAA active region 3738 and the X1.9 flare of 13:26 UTC, hence not expected to be Earth-directed.

Zonnewind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 15 to 3 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetisme

Global and local geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during the past 24 hours, with short intervals of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3- and K BEL 3 at 16 Jul 15:00-18:00 UTC and K BEL 3 at 17 Jul 09:00-12:00 UTC). A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause levels to increase to active and possibly minor storm conditions.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 276, gebaseerd op 18 stations.

Zon indexen voor 16 Jul 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	331
10cm zonneflux	242
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	016
Geschatte Ap	015
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	287 - Gebaseerd op 23 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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