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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Aug 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Aug 2024	235	014
03 Aug 2024	232	007
04 Aug 2024	229	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with twelve M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M7.4 flare from NOAA AR 3768 (beta-gamma-delta), which has rotated beyond the visible disk. There are currently thirteen numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex ones are NOAA ARs 3765 and 3772 (both beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3768 has rotated behind the west limb, but may still exhibit flaring activity. NOAA ARs 3762 and 3771 have rotated behind the west limb. NOAA AR 3773 is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

Further analysis of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 06:40 UTC on August 01 suggests that a mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth at UTC midday on August 04. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery around 11:45 UTC on August 01, lifting off the southeast quadrant. It is likely associated with two M-class flares from NOAA AR 3772 peaking at 11:37 and 11:47 UTC on August 01. It is not expected to have an Earth- directed component. A wide CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from 21:42 UTC on August 01, lifting off the northeast quadrant. It is possibly associated with a filament eruption near NOAA AR 3775 and it is not expected to have an Earth directed component. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 coronagraph imagery starting from 04:17 UTC on August 02. It is likely associated with flaring activity near the west limb from NOAA ARs 3768 or 3773. A related type II radio emission was observed, starting at 04:49 UTC on August 01, with an estimated velocity of 438 km/s. A related type IV radio emission was observed, starting at 04:57 UTC on August 01. This CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. Further analysis of these events is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Zonnewind

Solar wind conditions were still slightly enhanced during the last 24 hours due to the effects of the suspected combined arrival of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as reported on August 01. Speed values reached a maximum of about 460 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field a maximum of 12 nT. The Bz component varied between -4.3 nT and 9.1 nT, but was mostly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was in the positive sector. Enhancements in the solar wind conditions may still be expected over the next 24 hours in case of a late arrival of the partial halo CME (observed at 02:40 UTC on July 29) and a possible glancing blow from another CME (obesrved at 13:36 UTC on July 29).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were mostly at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3) until 06:00 UTC on August 02, when they decreased to quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2). Geomagnetic conditions locally were mostly at unsettled levels (K BEL 3), with a brief active interval (K BEL 4) between 14:00 and 15:00 UTC on August 01. They are currently at quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, with possible active intervals (NOAA Kp 2 to 4) are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours in case of a late arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a possible glancing blow.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 244, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	261 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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