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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Aug 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Aug 2024	242	011
05 Aug 2024	240	006
06 Aug 2024	238	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with ten M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M7.3 flare peaking at 18:39 UTC on August 03, from NOAA AR 3775 (beta-gamma). There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex is NOAA AR 3772 (beta-gamma-delta). The clustered ARs 3763, 3764, 3765, 3766, 3770 and 3773 are currently rotating or have rotated behind the west limb, but may still exhibit flaring activity. NOAA AR 3778 is currently rotating on disk from the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

Multiple filament and prominence eruptions were observed in AIA 304 data, but no associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The most important events were: a filament eruption around 12:15 UTC on August 03 in the south hemisphere, near the central meridian; a second filament eruption around 13:49 UTC on August 03 near NOAA AR 3777; a third filament eruption around 00:20 UTC on August 04, near NOAA AR 3775; a large prominence eruption around 04:42 UTC on August 04, in the southwest limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronale gaten

A negative polarity coronal hole has emerged near the equator, southeast of the central meridian.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions were enhanced early on August 04 due to a suspected arrival of a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Speed values reached a maximum of around 480 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field a maximum of 15 nT. The Bz component reached -15 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, switching to negative around 09:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with some enhancements still possible due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally reached minor storm levels (Kp 5-) between 06:00-09:00 UTC on August 04, due to the suspected arrival of the glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on July 31. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K BEL 4) between 07:00-10:00 UTC on August 04. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the potential arrival of a second glancing blow from the CME observed at 18:48 UTC on July 31.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, pending new eruptive activity from the active regions near the west limb and the active regions clustered around NOAA AR 3766.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 233, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	245
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	222 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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