Het archief bekijken van donderdag 8 augustus 2024

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Aug 08 1239 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Aug 2024	325	017
09 Aug 2024	335	025
10 Aug 2024	340	025

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares being recorded. The strongest was an M5 flare peaking at 18:54 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 18:48 UTC. This region also produced 3 other M-class flares. NOAA AR 3774 produced an M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC. These two regions, NOAA AR 3774 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (Beta-Gamma- Delta), increased in size and complexity. NOAA AR 3779 decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR3780 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta) but produced only C-class flares in the period. A new region emerged near 3781 and was numbered NOAA AR3783. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A faint halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, first seen around 14:36 UTC August 07. It is possible that this is a combination of a back side event as well as a CME associated with the M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC from NOAA 3774. A second slow CME directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:00. This may be related to the M5 flare associated with NOAA AR3777. Analysis of these events are ongoing but initial analysis suggest that both could have an Earth directed component which may impact Earth from August 10.

Zonnewind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -5nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, there is a small chance of minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field on August 08 to 09 due to the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 5, and a possible weak shock from the partial halo CME of August 05. Stronger enhancements are possible from August 10 due to possible influence of the combined CMEs of August 07.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with one isolated active interval measured locally (NOAA Kp 1-3 and Local K BEL 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels in the next 24 hours, with possible minor storm conditions from August 10 in response to possible CME arrivals.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 312, gebaseerd op 17 stations.

Zon indexen voor 07 Aug 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	303
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	008
Geschatte Ap	008
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	283 - Gebaseerd op 23 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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