Het archief bekijken van maandag 12 augustus 2024

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Aug 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Aug 2024	278	032
13 Aug 2024	276	030
14 Aug 2024	270	013

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a M1.63-flare, with peak time 05:48 UTC on August 11 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma). The second largest M-class flare is a M1.26-flare, with peak time 00:18 UTC on August 12 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). Both these regions produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma) are also larger and more complex than the other regions currently on disk. NOAA AR 3788 (beta) has rotated on disk. NOAA AR 3774 has started to rotate over the western limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the influence of an ICME, likely from a CME from August 07 and a CME from August 08, associated with a X1.3-flare. The solar wind speed varied within 463 – 534 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 8 nT and 23 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -20 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to be disturbed, with possible ICME arrivals late on August 12 and early on August 13.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions have reached major storm levels globally (NOAA Kp 7) and moderate storm levels locally (K BEL 6) since 03:00 UTC on August 12 in response to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters and prolonged periods of soutward directed Bz component.

Proton flux niveaus

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 236, gebaseerd op 23 stations.

Zon indexen voor 11 Aug 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	282
AK Chambon La Forêt	072
AK Wingst	032
Geschatte Ap	034
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	244 - Gebaseerd op 28 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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