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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Aug 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Aug 2024	252	010
15 Aug 2024	248	013
16 Aug 2024	244	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels, with one X-class flare and 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma- delta). The second largest flare was a M4.44-flare, with peak time 04:02 UTC on August 14 and is associated with active region NOAA AR 3777 (beta- gamma). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta), NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (beta-gamma) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3777 is continuing to rotate over the west limb. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and was associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 304 at 07:28 UTC on August 13 in the south-west quadrant of the sun. A second CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 04:50 UTC on August 14 and was associated with a M4.44-flare, with peak time 04:02 UTC on August 14 and NOAA AR 3777. A third partial or possibly full halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 and was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 and NOAA AR 3784. Further analysis of all 3 CMEs is ongoing.

Coronale gaten

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth around August 16.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were under the waning influence of an ICME. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE varied between 366 km/s to 447 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field gently decreased from 15 nT to 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative. In the next 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1 - 4 and K BEL 1 - 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 182, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	260
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	219 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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