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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Sep 22 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Sep 2024	158	009
23 Sep 2024	160	009
24 Sep 2024	162	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels. There are eight numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3828 (beta-gamma) remaining the most complex ones, followed by NOAA AR 3833 (beta-gamma), which exhibited further growth and flux emergence. NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) has exhibited some decay. The strongest activity was a C4.5-flare with peak time 20:46 UTC on Sept 21st, produced by NOAA AR 3831 (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at low levels over the coming days with 45% chances of M-class flares and 10% chances for X-class flaring.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A filament eruption started on the central meridian in the north-east quadrant around 05:00 UTC on Sept 22nd. No clear coronal dimming or other signatures were observed, apart from a narrow north-west coronal mass ejections (CME) first observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 07:00 UTC. Currently analysis suggests no foreseen impact on Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronale gaten

An equatorial positive polarity coronal hole is residing on the central meridian with small chances for a mild high speed stream arrival at Earth late on Sept 24th or early Sept 25th.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 7 nT with a minimum Bz of - 6.4 nT. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied between 324 km/s to 448 km/s. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be predominantly at slow background solar wind in the upcoming days with chances of a weak connection to a mild high speed stream coming from a positive polarity coronal hole on Sept 24th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet with some unsettled periods registered locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next days with small chances for isolated active periods on Sept 24th and Sept 25th, pending a mild high speed stream arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal to moderate levels and is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 143, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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