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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Oct 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Oct 2024	172	025
24 Oct 2024	175	017
25 Oct 2024	179	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flares were two C5.1 flares (SIDC Flare 2371 and 2373), peaking at 12:11 UTC on October 22 and 00:26 UTC on October 23, respectively. The first was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863), and the second was produced by an active region behind the east limb (S08E88). There are currently six numbered active regions on the visible disk, with SIDC Sunspot Group 275 (NOAA Active Region 3863; beta-gamma) being the most complex. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3859; beta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 290 (NOAA Active Region 3860; alpha) are approaching the west limb. A new, yet unnumbered active region is currently rotating onto the disk from the southeast limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares

Coronale massa uitstoten

A small filament eruption was observed near S5W50 at around 17:07 UTC on October 22. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from around 17:48 UTC, directed primarily to the southwest from Earth's perspective. Preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, with a minor chance of a weak glancing blow. Further analysis is ongoing.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters were slightly disturbed under the mild influence of a high-speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reached values up to 12 nT, and the solar wind speed increased from around 300 km/s to 350 km/s. The southward component of the IMF fluctuated between -8 nT and 6 nT. The IMF phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated on October 23 due to the ongoing HSS influence. A return to slow solar wind conditions is expected by October 24, with a chance of weak enhancement on October 26-27 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on October 22.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled globally (NOAA Kp: 2- to 3-), while locally over Belgium, active levels were reached between 15:00-18:00 UTC and 21:00-00:00 UTC on October 22 (K-BEL: 2 to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with a chance for isolated active periods due to the mild influence of the high-speed stream.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 124, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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